Expert Council sees climate targets 2022 only partially achieved and assesses the planned amendment of the Federal Climate Change Act
On 17.04.2023, the Council of Experts on Climate Change published its Review Report of the German Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the Year 2022. Apart from a minor correction in the calculation of the emissions of the transport sector, the Expert Council finds no indication that the Federal Environment Agency should have arrived at different results of the previous year’s emissions. For the year 2022, the Federal Environment Agency has switched to a more model-based method in the data basis, which is welcomed by chairman Hans-Martin Henning: “The procedure now largely follows that of the official emissions reporting to the United Nations, which we welcome.”
Review of data confirms renewed failure to meet targets in sectors transport and buildings
In 2022, emissions decreased by 1.9% compared to 2021, from 760 to 746 million tons carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e). As in the previous year, the reported emission values for the transport and buildings sectors in 2022 were again above the annual target values specified in the Federal Climate Change Act. In the buildings sector, the target was missed for the third year in a row. According to Section 8 (1) of the Federal Climate Change Act, the responsible ministries now have three months to present an immediate action programme.
Emission reductions are partly crisis-related and may not be permanent
Without the lower-than-expected economic growth as a result of the war in Ukraine, greenhouse gas emissions would have been about 9 Mt CO2-e higher according to a rough calculation. “The emissions development in 2022 was strongly influenced by the energy price crisis. In particular, the significant drop in the industrial sector is essentially due to energy price-related production declines in energy-intensive industry and could therefore be temporary,” Council member Barbara Schlomann classifies the development and continues: “Moreover, with the knowledge of today and the updated data from the National Inventory Report, an immediate action programme would also have been due for the industrial sector last year.”
Cornerstones for planned amendment of the Federal Climate Change Act harbor risks
“The decisive factor is that the amount of emissions currently specified in the Federal Climate Change Act may not be exceeded cumulatively over the decade. This budget approach is a central idea of the law,” emphasizes deputy chair Brigitte Knopf. “A possible blurring of a clear departmental responsibility as well as the various considerations to change the control mechanism in the Federal Climate Change Act increase the risk for future missed targets,” Brigitte Knopf continues and adds: “This is especially critical in light of our enormous challenges to achieve the yearly targets until 2030, which we identified in our Biennial Report 2022.”
