Immediate action programme 2020 alone cannot achieve forecast reduction effect in the building sector
Berlin, 25.08.2021 – In accordance with Section 12 (2) of the Federal Climate Change Act, the Council of Experts on Climate Change presents its assessment of the assumptions on the proposal for an immediate action programme of the Federal Government for the building sector. Overall, the programme appears to be effective, but does not provide evidence for achieving the climate targets for the building sector by 2030.
In accordance with the Federal Climate Change Act (KSG § 8 para. 2), the Council of Experts on Climate Change has reviewed the assumptions of the Immediate Action Programme 2020 for the building sector of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) and the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community (BMI) and submitted its corresponding “Report on the Immediate Action Programme 2020 for the building sector” to the Federal Government. The submission of this “Immediate Action Programme 2020” by the two ministries became necessary under the Federal Climate Change Act (Section 8 (1)) because, according to the previous year’s estimate of 2020 greenhouse gas emissions by the Federal Environment Agency of 15 March 2021, the buildings sector exceeded its 2020 sector target by 2 Mt CO2 e .
Examination of the 2020 immediate action programme
The Immediate Action Programme 2020 to be examined provides for securing additional funding of EUR 5.8 billion for the “Federal Promotion for Efficient Buildings (BEG)” in 2021.
The review of the assumptions by the Council of Experts on Climate Change has shown that the documents submitted by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology and the Federal Ministry of the Interior and the calculations of the expert commissioned by the ministries do not permit a methodologically consistent, isolated quantification of the impact of the Immediate Action Programme 2020 submitted by the ministries.
Based on the funding volumes assumed there for the future, the report shows an additional reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector of 2 Mt CO2 e in 2025 (and 4 Mt CO2 e in 2030). The result of these values appears to be an overestimation. Above all, the reported greenhouse gas reduction effect cannot be attributed exclusively to the Immediate Action Programme 2020, but results from the total assumed increase in funding volumes (a total of 32 billion euros from 2020 to 2030 inclusive, including the 5.8 billion euros of the Immediate Action Programme). Overall, no evidence has been provided that the Immediate Programme 2020 proposed by the BMWi and BMI meets the requirement of Section 8 (1) of the Federal Climate Change Act to ensure compliance with the sector’s annual emission volumes for the following years.
Henning: “Further efforts in the building sector probably necessary” “The immediate action programme for the building sector will certainly contribute to an additional reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years, especially if the funding volumes are increased beyond 2021 as assumed in the submitted documents,” says Professor Hans-Martin Henning, Chairman of the Council of Experts on Climate Change. “At the same time, however, it can be concluded from the review of the submitted documents that further efforts going beyond this will probably be necessary to achieve the sector targets in the buildings sector.”
The review report of the Council of Experts on Climate Change on the Buildings immediate action programme is available at https://expertenrat-klima.de/. No further immediate action programmes are due in 2021. The next regular report of the Council of Experts on Climate Change Issues in April 2022 will deal with the estimate of greenhouse gas emissions for 2021 to be submitted by the Federal Environment Agency in March 2022.
The report is available here: https://expertenrat-klima.de/publikationen/
The Council of Experts on Climate Change (ERK) is an independent panel of five experts from various disciplines. It was appointed in September 2020 and is mandated by Section 11 and Section 12 of the Federal Climate Change Act (KSG). The Council consists of the five members Prof. Dr. Hans-Martin Henning (Chair), Dr. Brigitte Knopf (Deputy Chair), Prof. Dr. Marc Oliver Bettzüge, Prof. Dr. Thomas Heimer and Dr. Barbara Schlomann. In addition to other statutory tasks, the Council of Experts on Climate Change examines the assumptions on which the measures are based when immediate action programmes are submitted, in accordance with Section 12 (2) KSG.
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